What the Parties Want - Liberals

Stephane Dion is a committed and noble Canadian - he deserves great respect for his job of promoting federalism in Quebec after the last referendum. He went around the province debunking the cherished myth that Canada takes more away from Quebec than the province gets back in benefits, and his Clarity Act has severely dampened the chances of a Yes victory in another referendum. That said, he is a lousy politician, in English at least (he apparently swept the floor with the competition in the French debate). Still, the election tide has turned to his favor - the economic crisis in the US seems to have caught Harper by surprise and, as an ideological free marketeer, he cannot wrap his head around it, let alone come up with a government intervention plan (gasp! the socialism!) to try to lessen the destructive effects of the crisis. As a result, the door to the premiership has opened a picometer for him - what will he do if he can sneak through?

Jean Chretien, but with much better French

Stephane Dion has one big idea - the Green Shift - which he lifted from the Green Party. According to this program, the overall rate of taxation would remain the same - you would get a fat tax cut on your income (if you work) or on your profits (if you're a business) but taxes on pollution would be sharply raised to make up the lost revenue. Thus productive behavior (working your job, increasing the profitability of your business) would be rewarded and bad behavior (emitting carbon) would be punished. You pay for what you burn, not on what you earn. For consumers, this is actually a much sweeter deal than has been made out - since you can control your carbon output (by biking to work, or heating your house less, or not flying, or cooling your house less) you can probably capture significant tax gains as a result of this scheme. From the business side, it produces significant incentives for working in clean activities, and this would, the argument goes, encourage the type of green business which will supply Canadians with the jobs and the investment opportunities of the future.
That is the one big policy item. The rest of the Liberal agenda represents continuity with the past and not a break from it. The social safety net will be made more robust and progressive, with catastrophic pharma care, the construction of social housing units, and more government-sponsored child care options. Support for culture will remain intact, budget conditions permitting, and the commitment to promoting Canadian culture will be treated as sacrosanct. Political correctness will return in full flower - expect a lot of rhetoric concerning women's equality and a revival of the Kelowna Accord. The Liberals have a long tradition of deploying the resources of the state towards achieving cultural change and progressive economic goals. Dion will reinvigorate this tendency - expect state resources and activism to be visible in poor communities and on distant First Nations reserves. This may sound nice, but this will all be expensive. Harper would give you tax cuts - Dion is unlikely to raise your taxes, but you won't be getting a cent back unless its an election year and the Liberals are five points behind. Also, while programs will be generous, that doesn't mean they will be at all effective. Conditions will be set for significant waste, and there is always the possibility of some late-term corruption, not by Dion himself but some of the party hacks in safe ridings. Finally, although the Green Shift is absolutely sound economic and environmental policy, there will be an adjustment period that may be very harsh for some sectors. Big consumers of energy and big polluters abound in Canada's resource industry, and those are the sorts of operations where efficiencies can be achieved by only to a limited extent - the petrochemical business works with petrochemicals, after all. Expect those industries - and the regions that house them - to take a big hit, while industries that are already clean and those that can retool in ways to lower emissions will be big winners. Effectively, this translates to Alberta and the resource towns taking a hit to increase the competitiveness of the big cities and manufacturing regions. Mind you, from an Ontario Liberal's perspective, this may not be a bad thing. Also, carbon costs will fall unevenly across lifestyle activities. Your idea of fun riding your bike down the West Coast trail? Congratulations, you've just saved enough money to buy organic produce for a year. You like snowmobiling or motor boating? Guess you're just gonna have to learn to live with paying for that hippie's organic beets.

Stephane Dion wants Canada to be like: Canada, but more so
Best case scenario: Sweden
Worst case scenario: Jimmy Carter's America
What he'll do about the crisis: Hold a meeting. If necessary, he may go as far as to offer relief to retirees, less likely to mortgage holders.
Chance of success: 20% He's just not that electable.