Sunday, October 12, 2008

What the Parties Want - Conservatives

Stephen Harper is an extremely cautious politician. Since becoming Prime Minister, he has been careful to steer a middle course, avoiding radical change and instead operating on the margins to make the institutions and the programs that Canadians support work more efficiently, more effectively and more honestly after the debacle of the Paul Martin premiership. On his watch, Canada experienced good economic times, letting him make some popular, conservative moves such as reducing the GST - as a result, he has developed a reputation as an effective administrator, an economic wonk and reducer of taxes. This situated him very well electorally, as it was meant to do, and he capitalized on the opportunity provided by the weakness and instability of the Dion Liberals to call an election, pressing his advantage and making a play for a majority government, the ultimate political goal of his premiership. He wants that majority badly - he broke his own electoral law to get it. We should ask ourselves - what would he do with it?

Shrink the State, Grow the Economy, Cultivate the Individual

Stephen Harper is not a Tory. The Progressive Conservative Party (note the adjective) had reconciled itself to the welfare state and looked favorably on the ineffective but colorful political institutions left over by the British - the unelected Senate, the Governor General, etc. They were a party of the Eastern Canadian Elite, slightly more pro-business and pro-American than the Liberals, but sharing much of that party's outlook. Stephen Harper is not this kind of Conservative.
He believes that in the decades after World War Two Canada lost its way. It sacrificed the freedom of its economy and the self-reliance of its citizenry, preferring to be coddled by a powerful and more-than-slightly-corrupt welfare state. As a result, the country has developed a "can't do" attitude, where the government is the first place (not the last place) the public turns to for help and leadership, and individuals are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives. This mentality and the smothering system of social support that cultivates it is the cause of Canada's persistant economic underpreformance, and Stephen Harper wants to end that.
He wants to reintroduce Canadians to the exhilarating freedom and opportunity of the market. It is in the market where people are free, free to select for themselves what they value (instead of having the CBC pick their music and tv shows for them), free to test themselves, free to succeed (and to fail). The market is the source for innovating, for growth and for dynamism, and Stephen Harper is confident that once Canadians are reintroduced to it, they will fall in love with it, since it will allow Canadians to achieve - through hard work, discipline and competitive pressure - their true potential. It will also liberate the productive Canadians from the burden of carrying those unwilling to work - even if you're reluctant, the market will find a use for you, though it may not be one you like. And it will reward those with the vision, the drive and the motivation to succeed.
Stephen Harper will cut your taxes. He will let you pick if you want to go to a private clinic or a public hospital. He will encourage provinces to give parents choice in where they educate their children. He will cut funding to the arts - not because he is a barbarian, but because he believes that real, valuable art will have no trouble finding sponsors and buyers in the private sector. He will hold people personally responsible for the mistakes they make - economically, by reducing welfare payments (those tax cuts don't pay for themselves) and by increasing criminal sentences. For the environment, he will do as little as possible - if people care about environmental issues, they should use their freedom as consumers to encourage green behavior by buying only from green companies, and those that don't care about the environment shouldn't have to shoulder costs for a cause they don't believe in. Very little will be done for First Nations - the Kelowna Accord is expensive, and aboriginal Canadians need to take responsibility for their own communities, which won't happen if they keep getting hand outs from the government. Quebec will be dealt with through greater decentralization, which will also let the provinces develop their own development agendas. Under Harper, the state will gradually give up a leadership role in Canadian culture and society - issues of value, identity and inclusion are matters for communities and individuals, not the stuff of public policy. As for foreign affairs, he likes America, dislikes Europe and doesn't care about the rest.
He hopes that these reforms - shrinking the role of the state, increasing business opportunities through lower taxes and fewer regulations, encouraging personal responsibility - will have very beneficial effects for Canada. Without the drag of taxes and regulations, companies in Canada (both Canadian and foreign) will take advantage of Canada's talented work force and abundant resources and a boom will result. There will be winners and losers - some provinces (looking at you Ontario) will refuse to get with the program and keep social outlays too high and discourage investment. Others (way to go Alberta!) will create the free market conditions for unparlleled growth, creating jobs and generating wealth. This wealth - kept in the hands of workers and investors thanks to the low taxes - will let people afford to make social welfare provisions (education, healthcare) for themselves, so they'll hardly notice the cuts to the social safety net. Without a paternalistic government telling people what to do - and an elite media telling them what to think - culture will actually reflect what people want, and not what they are told to want. More Shania Twain, less whatever they play on CBC radio three. You will also finally have the opportunity to avoid the hegemony of political correctness, and social conservatives will be able to live in their own communities according to their own values without worrying about whether their kids are being taught a pro-gay agenda in school or through the CBC. This new economic, social and cultural reality will create a new Canadian, more self-reliant, more self-confident, willing to take responsibility for himself and unwilling to should the burden of the lazy.
That is what he wants for this country, which he described as "a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the word." He wants Canadians to cut the apron strings to big government, and achieve their full potential while being free to enjoy the fruits of their own hard work.

Stephen Harper wants Canada to resemble: Ralph Klein's Alberta
Best case scenario: Ireland (deregulated economy, boom times, but still strong cultural unity and a reasonable social safety net)
Worst case scenario: George Bush's America
What will he do about the crisis: As little as possible. Let the market sort it out - government just screws things up. If absolutely necessary, everyone gets a stimulus check.
Likelihood he gets his way: 45% before the crash, 10% now

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