Some people make election predictions weeks ahead of time, confident of their ability to predict outcomes from structural facts and big trends. I am not one of those people, and my willingness to dither until the last minute has allowed me to avoid the embarrassment of having my Conservative sweep prediction, er, swept away by the US financial melt down. So here are my numbers:
Conservative minority government
(not a majority thanks to everyone in LA who had their property repossessed, not a Liberal minority thanks to Dion's perpetually peptic expression)
Conservatives: 115
Liberals: 99
NDP: 41
Bloc: 51
Green: 0
Other: 2
If I am mistaken, the fault is clearly someone elses. This time, I'm blaming my sisters cat, who selfishly requires food and water.
The upshot of this result is another closely constrained and unstable Conservative government, and an almost immediate gear-up for the next election. Little will get done, except some kind of stimulus package and perhaps (if the market fails to recover) a federal guarantee of pensioners income.
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3 comments:
Not quite a sweep, but those wacky conservatives are making Western and Central Canada look like one big Alberta...
Yeah... It's a bad day for my political loyalties. The Manitobans elected a few NDPers, and Vancouver was reliably left, but Ontario let us down, and now we have Harper. Hopefully not for long - he, like Iceland, will be a victim of the financial crisis.
But last time I make optimistic predictions - on the record, I'm saying McCain/Palin '08, though don't ask me to put money on it.
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