The Week After - Post-election Analysis

So the election is over and done. We know who won and who lost - but what does it all mean?

The Conservatives are a little at sea in confronting the economic crisis. The market is supposed to work, goddamn it, and a pro-market party is ill equipped to deal with a crisis triggered by a massive failure of free financial markets. As a result, Harper seems to be lifting Dion's plan by calling a first minister's meeting to address the issue. I don't know what the results of that will be - this is not a crisis that one can solve through deregulation and tax cuts, the preferred Conservative policy solutions to pretty much anything. My guess - and this is a guess only - is that we may see some sort of stimulus package, with cheques in the mail and more money going to the provinces for infrastructure programs to offset private sector job losses and bankruptcies. Any aggressive agenda on social issues or reworking of Canadian society in a free market direction will have to be put on hold - the minority government will need the acquiesence of opposition MPs, and will have more than enough on its plate in confronting the inevitable recession.

For the Liberals, this means the end of Dion's leadership. Hopefully a long and costly leadership struggle won't result, with either Ignatieff or Rae clinching the job early and consolidating their position in good order. The Green Shift will be shelved, but hopefully not for long - it represents a very rare sort of policy program, sound both enivronmetally and economically.

The NDP had a very good showing, which will likely allow Jack Layton to keep his job. Ditto for the Bloc and Giles Duceppe, who may have lost a seat but can claim credit for "Bloc"ing (I'm very sorry) Harper in Quebec and maintaining his party's position. The Greens did very well, almost doubling their vote share, but did not manage a single seat. That is enough to keep the party together for the next election, but may force a reconsideration of campaign tactics.

Going forward, the 40th Parliament of Canada is unlikely to last long. Although the financial crisis seems to have avoided hurting Canada directly - the banks remain sound, even those with subprime losses and extensive investments in the States - the damage to the world economy cannot be understated, and the contraction in foreign demand, combined with decreased spending by Canadians whose asset values have tanked, will push the country into a painful recession. Even if the Conservatives do everything right, Canadians will be hurting economically and will blame the government (in retrospect, the Liberal loss may be a blessing for that party - it won't be their reputation that takes the hit), and the popularity of the Conservatives will suffer as a result. Minority status represents a real danger for the Conservatives - mirroring Harper's opportunistic engineering of the timing of this election, the opposition can sit back and let tough times take down the Conservative's numbers before yanking the rug out from under them with a no confidence vote at the opportune moment. This Parliament won't serve a full term - a year and a half, two years tops.