In 2000 and 2004, the electoral outcome was determined by a small number of votes in crucial swing states. While this was the result of a hard fought campaign both times, it also reflected (especially in 2004) a deliberate strategy devised by Karl Rove, which counted on mobilizing a conservative base to reach a bare majority, moderate voters be damned. The linchpin of this strategy was in keeping turnout among conservatives (whether libertarians, Christian conservatives or neocons) high and, concomitantly, keeping turnout among Democratic constituencies (blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) low. This goal has been pursued through a number of tactics, most of them legally questionable (or outright illegal) shenanigans - there's purge lists disenfranchising eligible voters, the politicization of the justice department to prosecute (nonexistent) voter fraud in minority communities (which resulted not in prosecutions, but the firing of prosecutors), and the misinformation flyering of black neighborhoods.
These sketchy practices cut against the basic principles of democracy, and they are ones which Republican operatives have developed into a high art. My fear going into this election was that a slight Obama majority in the electorate might be overcome through these forms of vote suppression deftly executed in a few key districts. Looking at the polls and predictions going in today, I feel at ease - the margin for Obama is too large for vote suppression to decide this election. It's not that I doubt the willingness of Repulican operatives to shenanigan - they've proven quite willing to do so in the past - but the level of suppression would need to be so great as to be impossible to conceal, and the public is not apathetic enough to let that slide. Further, Republicans know this, and recognize that they may not enjoy the protection of the powers that be after this election, so the pool of would-be Katherine Harrises has shrunk considerably - there isn't the capacity to commit the type of fraud that would be necessary to falsify the election for McCain. This election will go down straight, and the winner will be the man with the most votes, unlike 2000.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
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